The entire blogosphere and more than a few traditional news outlets are all saying that Apple is going to be announcing a tablet during the big event they've scheduled for 27 January 2010 (3.00AM on the 28th for those in Australia). While the idea of a tablet has some attraction to the market, I'm not convinced that they're going deliver one.

CES saw many many companies release and announce tablets and eReaders. At the moment, it's fair to say that on the eReader side of things, Amazon owns the market with a device that has the entire book buying and reading process refined. When Apple released the iPod there were other MP3 players around but none had high capacity hard drives and Apple managed to nail the usability through the iPod/iTunes ecosystem. In other words, they weren't first to market but they were arguably best to market.

With the tablet, Apple won't be delivering something new or something that hasn't already been well done by something else. For Apple to turn the hype of a tablet into market success they'll need to not only create a great product but fulfil a need that the market may not even know it has. Remember the hysteria surrounding the MacBook Air. Sure, the Air is a damn sexy product (I've owned one) but its limitations and the introduction of the 13-inch MacBook Pro have rendered the Air to all but obsolescence.

So, if Apple doesn't announce a tablet, what will they unveil. I suspect that it will be something from the shopping list below.

1 - A new Apple TV with integrated tuners making it a full PVR solution

I've got an Apple TV. If it had a high definition tuner and Apple applied its software engineers to the task of making this Steve Jobs hobby project easy to use then they'd have a winner. For the win, they could release a software update so that existing Apple TV units could install a USB tuner to the unused port at the back of the Apple TV.

2 - A netbook (they described this as a "nascent market" last year and hinted that they were doing some product development)

The establishment of the 13-inch MacBook Pro line basically made the MacBook Air into a firth wheel. I suggest that the 13-inch MacBook Air will be superseded by a lower cost 10-inch MacBook Air. However, if this happens, Apple won't be calling it a netbook in order to avoid the stigma that comes from some of the cheapest, more underpowered netbooks it would compared with. Also, unless it costs less than $800 USD it won't sell.

3 - The iPhone nano - a smaller, cheaper iPhone (fits their iPod strategy)

This one's less likely but still on the cards. While Apple might not be the biggest seller of handsets on the market, they practically own what David Pogue calls the "app phone" market. recent research from Gartner says that Apple owns practically all mobile application sales. While I'm not sure that Gartner's figures are 100% correct (What about the installed base of Palm and Windows Mobile apps? How about sales from independent software vendors?).

A second model, appealing to the portion of the market that wants a more compact form factor would be a sure-fire winner.

4 - A new iLife and iWork update (an anticlimax for all the hype)

iLife updates were typically released at the Macworld Expo. Although Apple is no longer attending the Expo, an iLife update is on the cards. iWork is less likely although the paintball effect on Apple's media invitation could point to an expansion of iWork to include a drawing program. The establishment of features like Instant Alpha in the other iWork apps makes me think this is a possibility.

5 - A huge shock: Steve Jobs to resign as CEO (stay on as chairman)

Let's face it - Jobs is a busy guy with many interests and the company didn't go belly up when he took his medical leave of absence in 2009