Over at CRN - the best place to find out about what's happening in Australia's sales and distribution channels, I offer some opinion on whether the iPad could spawn a grey market in locales where the 3G version doesn't arrive promptly through Apple's official channels.

Apple's distribution model for the iPad tablet looks, smells and feels a lot like its approach for the original iPhone. And if history is any guide, that means a strong potential for a grey market.

Here's the full story.

Apple announced the iPad about 12 hours ago and it's been occupying most of my time today. I managed to get a story out early this morning via IT News about whether the iPad matches the hype that surrounded its release.

Frankly, I'm a little underwhelmed. Although some of the technology is undoubtedly impressive it really isn't much more than a over-sized iPhone minus the camera.

I'm sure that the coming weeks will reveal more and once it's actually released in about 60 days we'll know everything there is to know. But, until then, I'm thinking that the iPad is a solution looking for a problem.

The entire blogosphere and more than a few traditional news outlets are all saying that Apple is going to be announcing a tablet during the big event they've scheduled for 27 January 2010 (3.00AM on the 28th for those in Australia). While the idea of a tablet has some attraction to the market, I'm not convinced that they're going deliver one.

CES saw many many companies release and announce tablets and eReaders. At the moment, it's fair to say that on the eReader side of things, Amazon owns the market with a device that has the entire book buying and reading process refined. When Apple released the iPod there were other MP3 players around but none had high capacity hard drives and Apple managed to nail the usability through the iPod/iTunes ecosystem. In other words, they weren't first to market but they were arguably best to market.

With the tablet, Apple won't be delivering something new or something that hasn't already been well done by something else. For Apple to turn the hype of a tablet into market success they'll need to not only create a great product but fulfil a need that the market may not even know it has. Remember the hysteria surrounding the MacBook Air. Sure, the Air is a damn sexy product (I've owned one) but its limitations and the introduction of the 13-inch MacBook Pro have rendered the Air to all but obsolescence.

So, if Apple doesn't announce a tablet, what will they unveil. I suspect that it will be something from the shopping list below.

1 - A new Apple TV with integrated tuners making it a full PVR solution

I've got an Apple TV. If it had a high definition tuner and Apple applied its software engineers to the task of making this Steve Jobs hobby project easy to use then they'd have a winner. For the win, they could release a software update so that existing Apple TV units could install a USB tuner to the unused port at the back of the Apple TV.

2 - A netbook (they described this as a "nascent market" last year and hinted that they were doing some product development)

The establishment of the 13-inch MacBook Pro line basically made the MacBook Air into a firth wheel. I suggest that the 13-inch MacBook Air will be superseded by a lower cost 10-inch MacBook Air. However, if this happens, Apple won't be calling it a netbook in order to avoid the stigma that comes from some of the cheapest, more underpowered netbooks it would compared with. Also, unless it costs less than $800 USD it won't sell.

3 - The iPhone nano - a smaller, cheaper iPhone (fits their iPod strategy)

This one's less likely but still on the cards. While Apple might not be the biggest seller of handsets on the market, they practically own what David Pogue calls the "app phone" market. recent research from Gartner says that Apple owns practically all mobile application sales. While I'm not sure that Gartner's figures are 100% correct (What about the installed base of Palm and Windows Mobile apps? How about sales from independent software vendors?).

A second model, appealing to the portion of the market that wants a more compact form factor would be a sure-fire winner.

4 - A new iLife and iWork update (an anticlimax for all the hype)

iLife updates were typically released at the Macworld Expo. Although Apple is no longer attending the Expo, an iLife update is on the cards. iWork is less likely although the paintball effect on Apple's media invitation could point to an expansion of iWork to include a drawing program. The establishment of features like Instant Alpha in the other iWork apps makes me think this is a possibility.

5 - A huge shock: Steve Jobs to resign as CEO (stay on as chairman)

Let's face it - Jobs is a busy guy with many interests and the company didn't go belly up when he took his medical leave of absence in 2009

I think it's incumbent on all Australian Internet users to understand exactly what the proposed Internet filter really means.

I've penned a story at Hydrapinion about this very important matter.

Please read it and respond in whatever way you feel is best.

From Ars Technica.

a look at some analysis form NPD on recent computer sales should make Apple's point of view crystal clear. For the month of June, slightly more than 9 out of every 10 dollars spent on a computer over $1,000 went to Apple.

So, while only one in ten computers sold in the USA were Macs, most of the money went Apple's way.

Seems like good business to me.

Well, as the owner of a shiny, new 13" MacBook Pro I was a little surprised to read that Apple had dropped the hard drive spec from what they had on the previous, MacBook. Rather than the faster 3Gbps eSATA drives they previously used, they introduced 1.5Gbps drives.

In response to some comments by customers, they've released a firmware update to support the faster eSATA specification.

MacBook Pro EFI Firmware Update 1.7 addresses an issue reported by a small number of customers using drives based on the SATA 3Gbps specification with the June 2009 MacBook Pro.  While this update allows drives to use transfer rates greater than 1.5Gbps, Apple has not qualified or offered these drives for Mac notebooks and their use is unsupported.

Did you catch the last sentence - this is a firmware update to support hard drives that they won't support.

I sense confusion in The Force.

Much is made of Apple design excellence and their innovativeness. However, I suspect that when we look back on 2009, we'll see this as the year when Apple consolidated its technology, focussing on stability and refinement rather that adding stack of new features of marginal value.

iPhone 3.0 and iPhone 3G S

Outwardly, the iPhone 3G S looks almost identical to its predecessor, the iPhone 3G. Other than some changed decals the body is the same. The changes that have been made to the hardware include a faster processor, improved graphics performance and a much needed increase in camera capability with more megapixels and the ability record video and do some basic video editing. In other words, the new hardware is, to a great degree, catching up to market that has moved on over the last year and some evolutionary improvements on the software front.

In fact, a close look at the iPhone OS reveals many subtle changes that improve the user experience hugely without being the sorts of "sexy" features that grab headlines. For example, the font used to display email is clearer. When sending a SMS, the progress bar has been shifted to the top of the screen and doesn't take up nearly as much space as it used to. Also, messages that aren't sent can be more easily resent.

The ability to search inboxes and the introduction of Spotlight to search the entire contents of the phone is a great benefit as well. As I use the notes field in the address book, this is a great boon as it makes it easy to find specific contacts. However, there's still room for improvement with messaging as different email accounts still have separate inboxes. As soon as Apple or some third party introduces a unified inbox for ALL messaging, they'll have my money.

Notebooks

Since the aluminium PowerBook G4, Apple's outward notebook design has only changed marginally. Even the introduction of the revolutionary Unibody manufacturing process has resulted in only incremental outward change. I would argue that although there are many benefits to the Unibody process (environmental benefits, slightly lighter bodies, increased strength) that benefits to end users are incremental.

The new MacBook Pro's introduced last week (designated as the mid-2009 MacBook Pros in Apple's support documents) represent refinement on the models introduced earlier this year. The addition of an SD slot to the 13" and 15" models and return of Firewire to the 13" product line represent a response to customer demands. Again, this is evolution but no revolution.

Snow Leopard

September 2009 will see the release of Snow Leopard, the latest incarnation of Apple's OS X operating system. The summary version of what Snow Leopard will bring is a bit like the superhero, The Atom. It's going to be fast, powerful and small. According to this informative article by David Pogue

And sure enough, Snow Leopard really is faster--and smaller. Yes, smaller: The OS occupies only half the disk space of the previous version, saving you a cool 6 gigabytes. That's a first in the history of OS upgrades.

Apple says that everything is faster, too: Snow Leopard installation is 45 percent faster, shutting down is 75 percent faster, waking up 50 percent faster, 55 percent faster joining Wi-Fi networks, and so on. (These are all Apple's measurements, and they're all "up to," but still.)

In other words, Snow Leopard is all about doing everything you do today. You'll just do it better. Again, evolution and not revolution.

Why consolidate?

I have a strong suspicion that Apple's strategy is based around the future of its enigmatic leader Steve Jobs. For least ten years, Apple's fortunes have been strongly tied to the fortunes of Jobs. When his health was questioned the stock price suffered, disproportionately in my view. Over the last few months, Jobs has been absent due to ill health and the need for him to take some time to get himself healthy. What we've seen is that the company has continued to operate successfully and develop new and improved products.

I don't think there's any surprise that Apple has been in product consolidation mode over the time when Steve Jobs' health has been in question. In fact, when one considers the long-term future of Apple it's clear that this year is incredibly important. I doubt that Jobs has been 100% hands-off this year but providing opportunities for his other executives to stand up has shown that for Apple there is life after Jobs.

Apple's next test will be whether its able to successfully conceptualise, develop and commercialise a new product. For example, without Jobs, can the Apple TV move from a "hobby" project to a commercially viable powerhouse like the iPhone? Is there someone in the management team with the force of will Jobs is reputed to have that can create something new. Only time will tell.

However, I'm certain that 2009 will be seen as the year Apple consolidated its product lines and market position. Perhaps, 2010 will be the year of Something Big. Maybe Something Big will be Jobs' "one more thing".

Macworld Expo 2009

As Bob Dylan sang in the 1960s - "the times, they are a-changin'". If the Macworld Expo 2009, Apple's last appearance at this iconic annual event, tells us anything, it tells us that Apple is a company in transition. This is a process that began a couple of years ago with Apple moving to Intel processors and changing its name. At this year's Expo that continued with Steve Jobs not even rating a mention during Phil Schiller's address.

I've heard this year's keynote presentation described as low key, subdued, boring and dull. However, when I think back to the keynote about three years ago all we got then were some new hardware announcements (well, this year we got the new unibody 17" MacBook Pro), new iLife and iWork releases and the usual "state of the union" type address such as sales data, retail store openings and the like. In other words, this was a normal keynote address. the ones we've recently had with iPhone announcements were the unusual ones.

When Apple announced the all new unibody Macbook and macBook Pro back in October 2008, it was clear that major product announcements could come at any time and that Apple wasn't going to to be tied into anyone else's schedule.

I think what we're about to see is a shift by Apple. Steve jobs is an incredible CEO. Most folks don't remember that Apple was on the brink of disappearing. Steve Jobs' return in 1997 was the beginning of a huge revival. At one stage, Michael Dell, the founder of Dell Computers, suggested that the best thing Apple could do was fold up their tent and give the remaining value of the business back to the shareholders. Today, Apple's market capitalisation exceeds Dell's by some margin.

Apple is, in my view, about to make a really big push for the hearts, minds and wallets of the business sector. The move to Intel CPUs means that folks can run a quarantined Windows installation for specific applications while retaining the operational benefits of the Mac OS.

iWork 09 now works natively with Microsoft Word files with no need to go through an export step and there's a new, online collaboration engine. Yes, I know that Pages and Numbers lack many of the high end features of Word and Excel but the features those applications have support the vast majority of users. Many people muse that most folks only use 10% of Word's capability but that everyone uses a different 10%. I reckon Pages has 80% of Word's feature set - more than enough for most users and certainly enough to compete and make for a profitable business. In any case, Apple wins the ease of use battle (in my opinion) although i actually like the Office 2007 "ribbon" (many people don't).

What we've learned from this year's Macworld Expo keynote address is that Apple is setting an agenda for the next 10 years and that they are getting serious about the business sector. Their hardware is very good, they have a great operating system and they're now backing that up with a serious push with their productivity apps. When Apple dropped the word "computer" from their name it told us that Apple wants to be more than just a computer business. We're now seeing that intention translate into a strategy and being executed.

Last week, I subbed in for Stephen Withers and wrote a Mac column for Hydrapinion. Here's the story.

I cover

• The opening of the new Apple store in Melbourne
• iPhone 2.1 takes the iPhone out of public beta testing
• The latest Leopard update

 Apple • Apple Store Melbourne • iPhone

As a theology student (I'm at Ridley College in Melbourne) one of the tasks I regularly face is research. Finding articles for specific topics or for when I'm running a Bible study can be quite tricky. While the index in the back of the book is handy, having to trawl through the indexes of many books is very time consuming and is pre-supposed on the idea that I know what book the information I'm after is in. That's where e-Books come to the fore.

Many theological reference books are now available on CDs or DVDs. A substantial subset of those books are published in a specific format so that a common front-end can be used to access the entire library and then search across the library. Windows users have had access to the Libronix software for some time. However, Mac users have only recently been able to enter the fray with the release of Logos Bible Software for the Macintosh. Logos for Mac is currently in its first public beta release following no less that 11 alpha releases.

I've been using Logos for Mac since the last couple of alpha releases and now have the beta installed. The beta does have some limitations. For example, you can only install and access books that you have already unlocked using the Windows version of the software. This feature will be implemented in the final release.

The heart of Logos for Mac (the icon on the Dock is labelled as Libronix DLS) is the Library. this is where all the books in your electronic library are listed. At installation, you can choose where to store the books. If hard disk space is at a premium you could store your books on a USB stick. I chose to put mine in a specific folder in the Documents folder on my Mac (a MacBook Air running OS X 10.5.4). I'd previously purchased the The Essential IVP Reference Collection and BST New Testament CD-ROM [Affiliate Links] and installed them to a Mac running VMWare Fusion. That meant that I'd generated a license file that unlocked the resources in my library. Until the final release of Logos for Mac comes out, you'll need a system running Windows.

From my Windows installation, I synchronised my licenses with the Logos license server. When I ran through the Mac installation, I synchronised my licenses from the license server to my Mac. If I add any new books to my library I'll need to do that on my Windows set up first and then sync the licenses.

The proof of the pudding with software such as Logos is in the speed with which search results come back. I must say that I was very impressed. I was writing an essay on the teaching of the apostle James on wealth and poverty. The various queries I ran all returned their results quickly in a list that was categorised by book. A "by rank" sort option for search results didn't seem to make any difference but this is a beta so i don't expect everything to be working perfectly yet.

Reading a book on the screen was surprisingly good. Many people much prefer to be able to hold a book and flick the pages but some of the books, particularly many of the volumes in the The Essential IVP Reference Collection[Affiliate Link] are very large and a little unwieldy as bed-time reads go. However, the Libronix document/database format makes it easy to jump to specific sections using the book's table of contents. It'd be nice if the font that the book was displayed in could be changed but that's a minor issue as the serif font that's employed is pretty good.

If you're working on an essay or sermon and have opened a number of different reference works and need to stop working for a while, you can save a workspace easily so that you can return and keep working from where you left off.

I love books. I have a reasonably extensive library of fiction and non-fiction at home. However, for study, electronic books hold huge advantages over paper. For Mac users that are studying theology I'd strongly suggest looking at some of the electronic options that are available. Logos for Mac ought to be on your shopping list.

 Bible Study • Libronix • Logos